Posted by: coastlinesproject | September 28, 2015

New England; Tropical depression 11 will deliver heavy rains.

Well, at least we finally have something to work with. Tropical Depression (TD 11) is located well SE of HAT this morning (Monday) with sustained winds estimated at 30 kts gusting to 40 kts. Not the most impressive TD of all time (see satellite image below). It is moving slowly to the NW and is likely to become a Tropical Storm tomorrow. The forecast track has it reaching the latitude of HAT (though well E) late on Thursday. Forecast intensity is expected to peak in the TS range then decrease to TD strength (20-34 kts) as we approach the weekend – the longer range models show the storm piling into a stalled frontal boundary in a location with strong wind shear.

The forecast steering currents will become S to N late in the week (see below) so that this storm should move more or less directly toward New England. Although winds will not be a big issue, very, very heavy rain will pose a serious flooding risk.

What’s going on is a bit of a one-two punch affecting New England. Prior to the arrival of the heavy tropical rain and strong S winds – likely Friday/Saturday – there will be heavy rain along a slow moving front on Wednesday followed by a blistering NE wind Thursday and into Friday. The frontal boundary rain may saturate the soil and NE winds will drive high water into east facing estuaries. This sets the stage for significant fresh water flooding as well as high water in the estuaries on the tropical deluge arrives.

Still many days off. I will update late this afternoon. Bill Ryan.


Read more in; Islands in the Storm, Storm Surge; A Coastal Village Battles the Atlantic, Beach Wars; 10,000 Years on a Barrier Beach. Available in local bookstores, and Amazon, Also See Strawberry Hill, UPNE, and Schiffer book tabs at the top of this page.




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