A fast moving coastal storm will affect Cape Cod (as well as NYC, CT and RI) on Thursday.
Low pressure is expected to form today over VA, then intensify rapidly offshore south of Cape Cod during the day Thursday. Because this storm will still be in the process of strengthening as it passes SE of Cape Cod, and it will exit very quickly late Thursday, the wind and sea effects will be less than the usual big storm. In addition, the moon phase is waxing gibbous, short of a full moon, so tides not as high as they could be.
Precipitation will begin as rain Thursday morning on the Cape then switch over to snow. Heavy snow is expected during Thursday afternoon, roughly 1-5 pm. Snow will taper off and end near midnight. Strong winds might get us close to the blizzard threshold although no Blizzard Watches are out at this time.
Winds will back to the ENE by early afternoon and quickly ramp up to near gale force. On the good side, wind direction will continue to back through the day becoming NNW by roughly 7 pm. High tide is late morning on Thursday so that helps a bit to limit erosion. On the other hand, strong NW winds will continue through Thursday night and into Friday morning. NW facing beaches will bear the brunt of this storm.
The most interesting aspect of this storm relates to snowfall type and amount.
Due to the timing of the strong pressure drop expected with this storm, it is likely that the bulk of the snow will be associated with 1 or 2 very strong snowbands. Hard to predict the location, timing and speed of these bands until a few hours out. As a result, be sure to check the very latest forecasts for snow amounts as they will be changing.
Also, the nature of the storm also suggests “fluffier” than usual (for the Cape) snow which will inflate snow amounts.
Although winds start ENE, they will likely be more NNE during the day leading to “Cape effect” snow adding to the amount from Wellfleet southward.
And one last thing: Listen for thundersnow during the afternoon Thursday.
“Whatever truth drops on, it eventually grinds it to a
powder.” Art Blakey