Posted by: coastlinesproject | October 4, 2016

Mathew Bill Ryan report.

At 0800 EDT, the center of Matthew was near 18.4 N, 74.2 W. Matthew made landfall near Les Anglais, Haiti at 0700 EDT as a CAT 4 hurricane. Winds are estimated at 125 kts with higher gusts. Movement is N (005 deg) at 8 kts. Hurricane force winds extend roughly 30-35 miles from the center and 50+ kt winds 50-70 miles.

The NHC forecast track continues to predict a slight westward curve that will bring the center of Matthew right through the Bahamas Wednesday and Thursday. Matthew will continue to be a major hurricane (CAT 3 or 4) as it transits the Bahamas. Once the center is north of Cuba (early Wednesday) storm surge will become an increasing concern.

In the longer range, the NHC forecast track continues the NW motion until Matthew is just offshore of FL near Melbourne in the very early hours of Friday. Matthew is still expected to be a CAT 3 storm at that time but is expected to begin weakening beginning Friday evening. Matthew is then expected to curve to the NE and travel along the coast, but just offshore, to near HAT by late Saturday night.

That said, several of the most recent model runs suggest Matthew may come onshore in SC/NC. The GEFS ensemble model members are shown below from last night 0600 UTC run. The Euro model is further east with its track but, following along on yesterday’s discussion, the most recent Euro run has trended ever so slightly towards the GFS solution (a more amplified trough and Matthew closer to the mid-Atlantic and New England).

Bottom line: No one is out of the woods. Even if the center of Matthew stays offshore, its effects will be widespread: heavy rain, fresh water flooding and storm surge will be issues from FL to NC Friday-Sunday.
A re-curve towards New England is not out of the question early next week. Although the storm winds will be much less intense at that time, surge and rain will remain threats.

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