Posted by: coastlinesproject | February 6, 2016

NE two more storms in the offing. Bill Ryan report.

Strong NE blow on Monday, chance of another blow with snow on Tuesday evening.

It’s February, so it’s prime time for the winter coastal storms. The Monday storm is much less “standard” than the big storm a few weeks ago. The track of the low will be much further offshore (see WPC forecast below), so less precipitation impacts, but its wind field will be larger than usual so Cape Cod will see NE winds up to Gale force from roughly sunrise Monday, continuing through the day before veering NW and diminishing after midnight. The highest high tide is late Monday morning so the surge probably won’t have spun up too badly by then. The current NWS forecast is 1-1.5′ surge. Seas much less than the last storm.

The big forecast problem is the possibility of a second storm almost immediately in its wake late Tuesday afternoon and evening. The very short spacing between storms is an odd scenario but, these days, we see lots of odd stuff. Right now only the Euro model builds much of a storm. The track is further west, however, so raises precipitation issues as well as high winds. The upper level disturbance driving the development of this storm is just now coming ashore on the West Coast. It will take 1-2 model runs (6-12 hours) to digest the probabilities so this evening’s forecast models should provide decent guidance.
“Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities.” Voltaire

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