Posted by: coastlinesproject | January 21, 2016

Bill Ryan’s explainer about uncertainties over the northern edge of this storm.

The forecast models remain in decent agreement and consistent run-to-run so there is high confidence in a major storm along the East Coast this weekend. The main uncertainties are the extent of snowfall along the coast north and east of NYC and the wind and storm surge impacts in New England.

Snow will start accumulating in DC by late Friday afternoon. The snow will spread north then northeast and affect Cape Cod by early Saturday evening. Heavy, heavy snow is likely in the mid-Atlantic, primarily VA, DC, MD, DE and central and southern NJ including PHL. There will be a very abrupt snow edge to the west and north of the storm running through central PA and up into MA north of the Mass Pike. The exact location of this edge can’t be pinned down. The risk of heavy snow remains along the immediate southern coast of CT, RI and MA with lower risk as you move north.

In Cape Cod, winds will shift NE Saturday morning as the storm approaches. Winds will increase to near gale force, with gusts up to 50 kts, by Saturday evening and remain strong through the night Saturday before shifting to the NW by Sunday evening.

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