Posted by: coastlinesproject | September 30, 2015

Joaquin could become hurricane in 24 hours. Bill Ryan report:

The 5 pm NHC update included information from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft which observed a stronger storm with maximum winds estimated at 55 kts. Central pressure is estimated at 990 mb (much lower than previous estimates).

The movement is now to the WSW (240 deg) at only 4 kts. This direction of movement is towards the Bahamas and into a region of relatively low wind shear and warm water. As a result, Joaquin should reach hurricane strength in the next 24 hours.

Continued movement to the W or WSW is expected tomorrow. The afternoon numerical forecast model runs are tending to clump around two solutions: a track just offshore of the US or a left turn into the mid-Atlantic. There is a lot of variability of position within each of the two possibilities, however, so no confidence yet in the forecast beyond 48 h.


Read more in; Islands in the Storm, Storm Surge; A Coastal Village Battles the Atlantic, Beach Wars; 10,000 Years on a Barrier Beach. Available in local bookstores, and Amazon, Also See Strawberry Hill, UPNE, and Schiffer book tabs at the top of this page.




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