Posted by: coastlinesproject | August 20, 2015

Danny, thanks Bill Ryan!

Hurricane Danny is a tiny little thing really. That said, its compactness has allowed it to fend off the intrusions of the dry Saharan dust layer that it has been passing through. Right now it is ~ 70 kts. We have no aircraft recon (first flights are Friday afternoon) so these winds are based on satellite estimates. We will have a much better read on intensity after tomorrow.

Danny’s track is WNW (295 degrees) at 9 kts and this track will continue for the next day or so then Danny is expected to bend to the left (west).
We expect an increase in intensity in the short term (24-36 h) due to low wind shear and warm water, but there is still a far amount of dust ahead. After ~ 36 hours, Danny hits a band of strong SW shear just east of the Caribbean. This should weaken Danny before any landfall.

The track right now brings Danny through the northern Caribbean Islands to Puerto Rico, so that locations like Antigua, St. Martins, and the Virgin Islands are at risk. Given the current speed forecasts, Danny will reach the islands late Monday and then Puerto Rico by midday Tuesday.

There is really nothing that can be said right now about the further path of Danny or its intensity, or the chances of reaching the mainland US. The waters south of Jamaica and Cuba are extremely warm, so a northerly track thru the Caribbean is preferred. Worth noting that the Gulf of Mexico is also quite warm.

In the meantime, this is the peak time of the season and there are a series of clusters of thunderstorms moving across Africa headed to the Atlantic. Any of these can pose a risk of future development.
For satellite loops of African waves, see: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/imagemain.php?&basin=europe&sat=m7&prod=irn

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