Posted by: coastlinesproject | February 14, 2015

NE Bill Ryan’s latest weather report.

Took a quick look at the afternoon forecast model runs. Two things stood out:

1. Model forecasts of snowfall amounts show a slight increase. In response, the WPC has increased the probability of snowfall in the 8-10″ range in Cape Code to 50/50. This is up from the previous forecast of 50/50 chance in the 6-8″ range. Again, snow banding with a rapidly deepening storm like this one is likely although the location of the bands will remain uncertain until closer to the event. Significantly higher amounts of snow are likely if Cape Cod gets stuck beneath one of these quasi-stationary bands.

2. The location of the center of the low pressure when it all hits the fan is now slightly further east than the previous forecast. This lowers further the likelihood of sustained easterly winds for Cape Cod. As a result, the strongest winds will be NW during Sunday reducing the erosion risk on the Outer Cape. Still very problematic for Cape Cod Bay and west facing beaches.

As expected, the NWS at Taunton has issued a Blizzard Warning and about every other kinds of nasty winter warning it can find. As noted earlier, winds will be very gusty with hurricane force gusts not out of the question.

In general, the forecast models remain very consistent with one another which gives more confidence in the forecast.

we begin with certainties, we will end in doubt, but if we begin
with doubts and bear them patiently, we may end in
certainty” Francis Bacon

Read more in; Islands in the Storm, Storm Surge; A Coastal Village Battles the Atlantic, Beach Wars; 10,000 Years on a Barrier Beach. Available in local bookstores, and Amazon, Also See Strawberry Hill, UPNE, and Schiffer book tabs at the top of this page. 10% will go toward the David Mountain Memorial Fund to provide environmental books to Cape Cod and North Shore students.


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