Posted by: coastlinesproject | January 25, 2015

Cape Cod storm Bill Ryan report.

If you’ve turned on the Weather Channel this morning, you’ll notice that they’ve gone to DEFCON 4 on this storm What’s Her name.

Yesterday the Euro model was the first to forecast a significant storm along the East Coast in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame, and overnight all the other models followed suit, some – like the US GFS model – even upping the ante. I haven’t had time to look at all the nuances but the strong consensus between the various forecast models means it’s safe to say there will be a big coastal storm that will give Cape Cod a pasting.

Easterly winds will pipe up Monday around mid-day or for sure by afternoon. Winds will become strong Tuesday night – likely reaching Storm Force – as the storm makes its closest approach to the Cape. This storm will not move as fast as the last one so there will be easterly fetch and gale force winds into early Wednesday morning. As a result, ~ 40-48 hours of east to northeast winds. This will lead to significant erosion on east-facing beaches.

Storm surge forecasts right now for Chatham and the Outer Cape are in the 2-3′ range with inshore waves up to 15′ (offshore much higher of course). I’ll take a closer look at this later but, as a benchmark, these are reasonable.

In any event, this storm’s no joke. If you have anything to square away, I’d do it today or Monday morning. Monday night and all of Tuesday will be a mess.

The NWS-Taunton forecast discussion this morning is good, I’ve added the link here:


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