Posted by: coastlinesproject | November 18, 2011

The Coastlines Project predicts that the early winter of 2011 will have statistically less erosion than was experienced during the last 5 years.

The last ten days of November will see more of the highest tides of the year. Our study area, the Chatham Inlet will see nine days of over 5 foot tides with the peak tides being 5.9 feet. After November this run of proxigean tides will drop significantly to 5.6 feet and the window of vulnerability will have significantly fewer days until they rise again in May 2012.

These Proxigean tides operate on a 31-year cycle that peaked on December 12 2010, when the moon was 30,000 miles closer to the earth than during the nadir of the cycle. We have found that these proxigean tides provide the most reliable means of predicting erosion events. While we cannot forecast storms we can assume that there will be a storm every other week on average throughout the winter months, so a 6 day window of vulnerability will be significantly safer than a 9 day window of vulnerability. This means that we can expect to see significantly less erosion for the next five years than we experienced during the last 5 years.

Read more in “Storm Surge,” and “Sea Level Rising The Chatham Story,” see tabs for UPNE and Schiffer Books at the top of this page.

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